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Who's Behind the Numbers?
Why is this Service a Value?
Other Ideas for the Service
Who's Behind the Numbers? I am often referred to as the NFL Model Man, but you may also call me Steve. I first became interested in modeling professional football in the late 1970s when some of my statistics students were developing models to predict success in the NFL.
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Why is this Service a Value? The service takes you out of the hit and miss dart throwing category. The model's cumulative forecasting success on games with at least 3 point edges over the spreads is 53%. This is for 660 games that have been tested between the 2004 - 2009 seasons, where our model has successfully predicted 350 of those games. The seasonal success rates over this period have varied between 51% and 57.6%.
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Other Ideas for the Service You may also use these forecasts as additional information to your own judgements and qualitative information that you may acquire. The models making these forecasts are built around key combinations of statistics. Thus, our models do not consider injuries and playing conditions, to name a few.
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Welcome to NFL Forecasts

What the service will do for you

For the small subscriber fee of $30 these forecasts will enable you to inflict serious damage in your Pro Pickem Leagues and to succeed in other professional football gaming endeavors.

Other services charge hundreds of dollars for similar services with similar, and even lesser, track records.  This offer, in all probability, is the best deal obtainable for receiving timely and valuable NFL forecasts.

football-player-celebratesThis service that will significantly increase your performance with Professional Football Selections. In the upcoming 2011 season we will produce weekly National Football League Forecasts on all games from week 2 of the season throughout the regular season. Forecasts will be sent to you by Wednesday of each week during the regular season.

The post season will also be forecast.  Our models have done very well against the spreads during playoffs between 2007-2010, beating the spreads in 19 of 30 games that had at least 2 point spread edges.

A typical forecast might include: New England over the Jets by 3.5 points. Three different models are combined each week to produce the forecasts, and all games are forecast.

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  • Models have been updated
  • Post season forecasts have been successful.
  • Extensive Testing
  • About Scorecards

symbols T hese forecasting models are currently based upon NFL statistical data from the 2001 - 2010 regular seasons. Thus, the model base has improved for the 2011 season.

The critical 2011 data will be input into the models (cumulatively) each week as the most recent data become available to produce the weekly forecasts. The models require at least 2 weeks of current data to begin forecasting, so this is why the official forecasts will begin in the 3rd week of the season.  The past couple of years we have sent our subscribers forecasts for the second week (which have actually done well) with the warning that 1 week of data isn't very much upon which to base forecasts.

400px-NFL_playoff_treeThe models performed especially well during 2007 - 2010 postseasons, beating the spreads in 19 of the 30 games in which our models had at least a 2 point edge over the point spreads.

The forecasts also covered the point spreads in 3 of the last 4 Super Bowls.

These models, along with their forecasts, have been tested on 794 regular season NFL games, having edges of 3 or more over the Vegas spreads, during the past seven NFL seasons. In these games with at least a 3 point edge over the spread, the predictions have been correct 407 times, for a success rate of over 50%.  Our winning percentages for the regular seasons were considerably better than this going into 2010.  However, our models had a tough time in 2010 as did most forecasters, with only a 57 - 77 record on the 3 point spread edges.  We strongly believe that the 2011 regular season will find our models forecasting back to their true forms.  Considering straight picks, with no point spreads involved, our track record is of course much better, winning 598 of the 933 regular season games between 2007 and 2010.
See the 2007 - 2010 scorecards on the site for all games with edges of 3 and over on the point spreads.

For consistency, we have been documenting these edges as close to game time as possible, and we shall continue to monitor the forecasting success in this manner throughout the 2010 season.  Because of low spread edges in the playoffs, we may go down to 2 point edges with our predictions. You will soon learn that most of the regular season forecasts fall within 3 points of the Vegas spreads. However, each week there will be usually 5 - 8 games in which our models show at least a 3 point edge over the spreads. These are the games that should be given higher confidence in the Pro Pickem Leagues and in other gaming pursuits.

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